According to the International Crisis Group, the war in Ukraine has had a profound impact on the South Caucasus, especially with regards to Armenia and Azerbaijan. Two years after their latest war over Nagorno-Karabakh, the two countries appear to be headed for another confrontation. The balance has shifted in Azerbaijan's favour, with the country outmatching Armenia several times over in terms of army size and equipment, as well as being backed by Turkey. Russia's travails in Ukraine have further upset calculations in the region, making it difficult for Moscow to fulfil its traditional role as a peacemaker.

The 2020 ceasefire, brokered by Russia, was supposed to open up trade in the region and pave the way for a compromise on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, but this has been overshadowed by heightened tensions between Russia and the West. As a result, there are two draft agreements in play - one prepared by Russia, and another by Armenia and Azerbaijan with Western backing. However, the two sides are far apart and Baku holds all the cards, meaning it would gain more from a deal in terms of trade and foreign relations than it would militarily. The danger is that the talks go nowhere or another flare-up sinks both the Moscow-led and West-backed tracks, and Azerbaijan takes what it can by force.

This is not just a regional problem: the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, born of the Soviet Union’s collapse, has long been a proxy war, with Turkey and Russia pitted against one another. Europe and the United States have a stake in the outcome, too.